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Sandown Weather - Tropical Weather Page
^^
Untitled Document

Current Atlantic Satellite Loop


Tropical Sea Temperatures

 


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 181150
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located near Barbados.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 750 miles east-northeast of the Leeward
Islands continues to show signs of organization.  While it would
take only a slight increase in organization for a tropical
depression to form later today or tonight, upper-level winds are
becoming less favorable for development.  The low is expected to
move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days,
and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Shower activity has increased during the last 24 hours in
association with a tropical wave located over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
favorable for some development early next week while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
    ...CENTER OF HARVEY BETWEEN BARBADOS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 8:00 AM AST Fri Aug 18 the center of Harvey was located near 13.0, -60.3 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Harvey

  • Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 4A
    Issued at 800 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 181152 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 800 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 ...CENTER OF HARVEY BETWEEN BARBADOS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 60.3W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF BARBADOS ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 60.3 West. Harvey is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey should move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea this morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) mainly to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). The Grantley Adams International Airport on Barbados recently reported a pressure of 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading through the warning area at this time, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area today. RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 4
    Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017
    
    000
    WTNT24 KNHC 180841
    TCMAT4
    
    TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
    0900 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017
    
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    NONE.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * MARTINIQUE
    * ST. LUCIA
    * BARBADOS
    * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * DOMINICA
    
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  59.1W AT 18/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  16 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
    34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
    12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  59.1W AT 18/0900Z
    AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  58.3W
    
    FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.2N  61.7W
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.5N  65.2W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.9N  68.8W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.1N  72.7W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.0N  80.2W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
    34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 16.5N  86.5W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.5N  90.0W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N  59.1W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER AVILA
    
    
    
  • Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 4
    Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017
    
    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 180842
    TCDAT4
    
    Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   4
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
    500 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017
    
    Harvey's cloud pattern has changed very little in organization
    during the past several hours. The low-level center is difficult to
    find even using the 1-min images from GOES 16, but it appears to
    be located on the eastern edge of the convection due to the
    prevailing easterly shear. Dvorak estimates from both TAFB
    and SAB support keeping the intensity at 35 kt. Another Air
    Force plane will be investigating Harvey at sunrise.
    
    The moderate easterly shear affecting the cyclone is expected to
    increase a little during the next day or so, and this factor should
    not allow significant strengthening. Once the cyclone reaches the
    western Caribbean Sea in 3 or 4 days, an environment of lower shear
    and high moisture is forecast to prevail, and Harvey should then
    gather some strength. The cyclone could be near hurricane strength
    by the time it is approaching Central America or the Yucatan
    peninsula. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and
    is very close to the intensity consensus. The GFS and the ECMWF
    global models are just a little more enthusiastic in keeping the
    cyclone from dissipating in this last run, but who knows what they
    might forecast the next time.
    
    Harvey has not changed in track or speed, and it is still moving
    toward the west or 270 degrees at 16 kt. The cyclone is well
    embedded within the easterlies south of a persistent subtropical
    ridge. This steering pattern will keep Harvey trapped in the
    Caribbean Sea while moving westward for the next few days. The
    track forecast is similar to the one issued by my predecessor and it
    follows closely the multi-model consensus. The guidance envelope is
    quite tight and is bounded by the northernmost ECMWF and the GFS to
    the south.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  18/0900Z 13.1N  59.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
     12H  18/1800Z 13.2N  61.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
     24H  19/0600Z 13.5N  65.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
     36H  19/1800Z 13.9N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
     48H  20/0600Z 14.1N  72.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
     72H  21/0600Z 15.0N  80.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
     96H  22/0600Z 16.5N  86.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
    120H  23/0600Z 17.5N  90.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
    
    $$
    Forecaster Avila
    
    
  • Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
    Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017
    
    000
    FONT14 KNHC 180841
    PWSAT4
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017               
    0900 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
    LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
    WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
     
    FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
    FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
     
    MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
     
    COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)
     
    BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  13(27)
    BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
    BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
     
    PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)
    PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
     
    GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   7(32)
    GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)
    GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
     
    PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)   X(20)
    PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
    PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
     
    BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
     
    SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)
     
    PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
    PT GALLINAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
     
    CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
     
    ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
     
    GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   1(12)
     
    MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   1(11)   X(11)
     
    KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)
     
    LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
     
    PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
     
    SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    AVES           34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    DOMINICA       34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
     
    MARTINIQUE     34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
     
    SAINT LUCIA    34 35   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
     
    SAINT VINCENT  34 20   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
     
    BARBADOS       34 18   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
    
  • Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics

    Tropical Storm Harvey 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 12:02:04 GMT


    Tropical Storm Harvey 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 09:23:25 GMT

  • NHC Eastern North Pacific

    Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

     


    Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
    
    
    000
    ABPZ20 KNHC 181150
    TWOEP 
    
    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    500 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017
    
    For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
    
    Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
    located about 700 miles south-southwest of the Baja California
    peninsula have become more organized overnight.  Environmental
    conditions are conducive for this system to become a tropical
    cyclone at any time over the next day or so while it moves
    west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky
    
    

    There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
    No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 18 Aug 2017 12:04:19 GMT